前景回顧:勇士有季後賽寶貴經驗,火箭能擊敗衛冕冠軍?

讓我們回頭看看去年7月,火箭從快艇手裡得到Chris Paul,從那時看他們的西冠之旅已經不可阻擋的要到來了。在這個上個休賽期,火箭一直都把如何對抗勇士謹記心頭,他們得到了一些多功能的防守球員,還有三分手,來幫助他們和勇士保持在一個競技水平之上。

現在,讓我們感謝他們做的一切。在絕大多數時間裡,勇士在西區佔有霸主地位,在去年他們通往總冠軍的道路上17戰16勝,這種可怕的戰績讓很多球隊的制服組感到陣陣涼意。但是現在的想法是,更好的去面對未來,而不是想著現在如何去擊沉勇士這艘航空母艦。

雷霆試圖抗擊勇士,但是在首輪出局的情況下,他們華麗的失敗了。如果火箭不能頑強的抵抗勇士的話,那麼西區的季後賽還是會和去年一樣像一出鬧劇。

實際上,火箭不僅僅帶來了Paul,他們還和PJ Tucker還有Luc Mbah a Moute簽約,這兩名有侵略性,並且不怕換防的防守人,將會在對上勇士這種分享球很好的體系時有出色發揮。他們在過去的一年中都在防守端更加專注,他們在賽季中加入的Gerald Green會讓球隊的板凳火力更加爆炸。

就像我們看到的結果,他們的計畫要比想像中執行的更好,即使不是對上勇士的時候,他們也做得很好。火箭隊本賽季得到了65勝,得到了本賽季全聯盟最佳戰績,並且在取得西區頭名的比賽中,他們領先勇士7個勝場。火箭防守端每100回合十分103.8分排名聯盟第六,這對於去年,也就是Mike D’Antoni執教火箭的第一個賽季,得到的防守效率106.4,排名聯盟18來說,是一個很大的提升。

當火箭的陣容在休賽期經歷的大幅修補以後,勇士呢?勇士什麼也沒做。他們需要做嗎?他們陣容中最重要的四個球員,Kevin Durant,Stephen Curry,Klay Thompson還有Draymond Green,他們都是全明星。而且他們還有可靠的板凳球員,Andre Iguodala,Shaun Livingston,還有David West。而David West也承諾會在休賽期以自由球員身份再次和球隊簽約。

火箭在他們最重要的10個人輪轉陣容中,有4個都是新來的球員,而勇士只有後衛Quinn Cook一人,當Curry因為膝傷缺陣的時候,Cook很好的調補了Curry的空缺,並且當Curry回歸的時候,他再次回到了輪轉陣容當中。球隊中的大個子,Kevin Looney得到了更多的上場時間,但是他已經在勇士的陣容中已經待了三年。

對於兩支球隊來說,踏上西冠的路途看起來十分相似。火箭打敗了灰狼和爵士,都是5場過關,勇士也都是用了五場比賽淘汰了馬刺和鵜鶘。在比賽的收官階段,兩隊在攻防兩端都打的擲地有聲。火箭在季後賽中,進攻評級110.3,排名季後賽第一,勇士109.1排名季後賽第四。而勇士在防守端評分99.4排名季後賽第一,火箭101.1緊隨其後排名第二。

這沒什麼可驚訝的。他們就是本賽季聯盟中最好的兩支球隊。這就是我們一直在等的大場面比賽。敬請期待。

對位問題:Trevor Ariza VS Kevin Durant

Ariza被選作球隊中Durant的主防人,因為他罕見的能全方位的完成各項防守任務。他的身材和身高,速度靈活性,還有已經14年的球齡給他提供了充足的經驗。

這一年,Ariza只面對過Durant一次。在開幕戰上的,Ariza防守了Durant 27個回合,並且讓Durant 14次運動戰出手只命中了4球,命中率28.6%。在這輪系列賽中,Ariza一定會多次被要求去防守Durant。而他的防守技巧,會讓進攻對於Durant來說變得更難,並且當有Clint Capela坐鎮禁區,Ariza能在外線防守Durant更加凶猛。

還值得一提的是:Durant在季後賽中,3分命中率只有28.1%,並且在例行賽最後9場比賽中,三分球命中率也只有30.9%。

關鍵球員

對於從來沒有體驗過季後賽深度遊的球員,Paul對於進入分區冠軍賽一定是憋足了一股勁。在準決賽對上爵士的收官戰當中,Paul幾乎是勢不可擋,他22投13中得到了41分,並且三分線外10投8中,而在整個季後賽中他的三分球投的不是很穩定,命中率只有29.4%。

這對於火箭來說是一個極大的不同。Harden在今年季後賽中有幾次啞火,但是球隊中的其他人在他打不開時候站了出來,當Harden運動戰命中率低於40%的時候,球隊4勝0負。而Paul在這四場比賽中,場均可以得到26.8分,並且命中率達到了48.8%。而回顧過去Harden在休士頓的季後賽履歷,他有15次命中率低於40%,火箭只取得了5勝10負的戰績。

在這輪西冠系列賽中,Paul需要繼續充當火箭進攻的保險絲。並且,同時Paul還需要找到方法去持續的限制Curry的發揮。

在這個賽季,Paul場均防守Curry 16個回合,限制Curry的投籃命中率為38.5%。Eric Gordon也會作為防守Curry的人,他場防守Curry17個回合,但是Curry在他的防守下,命中率66.7%。

重要數字:0

讓我們回到2016年,兩隊在二月的一場比賽還剩下5分09秒的時候。這是最後一次你看到,Thompson在Harden身上犯規,把登哥送上罰球線。罰球是Harden的比賽裡很重要的一部分,但是Thompson在防守登哥的時候總是很小心——他很小心翼翼的不給登哥任何創造罰球的機會。

在比賽季對上火箭的兩場比賽中,Thompson花費了很多的時間去防守Harden。這麼做的原因在於,Harden是西區所有球員中最難防守的,而Thompson是聯盟中最好的鋒線防守球員之一。根據NBA官網的數據,在Thompson的防守之下,Harden在場均38.5個回合裡得到11分。Harden整體的命中率為50%,並且三分線外命中率57.1%。

但是,登哥並沒有從湯神身上得到一次罰球的機會,對於一個賽季場均要罰10.1個球的球員,Thompson對他的防守算是一項豐功偉績了。當Harden在場上投籃的時候,湯神和勇士都可以存活下來,特別是Harden在季後賽投籃十分掙扎,在二輪G5對上爵士22投7中以前,運動戰命中率只有41.7%。

他們的目標是不讓Harden站上罰球線,而這一項湯神和勇士都做得不錯,在今年對上勇士的兩場比賽當中,登哥一共拿到了6次罰球。

火箭VS勇士:預測

有很多種方法讓你可以說服自己火箭能擊敗衛冕冠軍。比如Harden和Paul能在同時都打出統治力,比如Capela可以在罰球線上命中,比如那些射手角色球員可以面對任何防守都把球投進去,還有任何一切不好的事情發生在勇士的身上。

但是勇士隊整體上有著巨大的季後賽寶貴經驗,並且他們品嚐過勝利的喜悅和兵敗的苦澀。沒有很多人能動搖他們,即使是對上像火箭一樣優秀的球員也十分難以撼動他們。勇士有優異的球隊深度和靈活性,並且在教練上也略勝一小籌。

西冠最終結果不會有什麼大不同。火箭不顧一切的想衝破勇士對西區的封鎖。他們整個一年都在為了這一刻準備。而我想說的是,他們很大可能最終還是會失敗。

勇士4比2晉級總冠軍賽。

 

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前景回顧:勇士有季後賽寶貴經驗,火箭能擊敗衛冕冠軍? 有 “ 31 則迴響 ”

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